investing

A Strategy to Increase your Investment Growth without Sacrificing Security

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Quiz!

What are the benefits of high investments in a diversified stock portfolio relative to withdrawals? (Multiple answers may be correct)

  1. They help get freedom from work.
  2. They add to your cash reserves, dollar for dollar.
  3. You can count a small portion of them as part of your cash reserves.
  4. They provide a potential snowball of accelerated increase in your wealth.

A Strategy to Increase your Investment Growth without Sacrificing Security

In a perfect world, you would allocate all of your money to high growth investments, to maximize the speed of building wealth. The issue is that growth comes with volatility, and you may need your money during a big decline for your investments. Examples for needs are a loss of job, a downturn for your business, buying a house, and the biggest of all – retirement. Common solutions involve a money market account, bonds and other low-volatility investments, that come with lower growth.

Is there a better solution? It turns out that there is another solution that lessens the compromises – a low withdrawal rate from a diversified stock portfolio. A diversified stock portfolio with a low withdrawal rate of 3%-4% may grow faster than cash or bonds when subject to the same withdrawal rate.

How do you get there?

  1. Build stable reserves to survive tough situations that are out of your control.
  2. Beyond that, invest in a diversified stock portfolio.
  3. Using a likely sustainable withdrawal from the stock portfolio (typically 3%-4%), reduce your reserves by that amount, moving it into the stock portfolio. You can check periodically (e.g. quarterly), and move the money whenever your investments grow relative to your spending (through any combination of new savings and investment growth).

This strategy creates a positive snowball: The more you have in stock investments, the more you can shift from the reserves to them. This accelerates the growth of your money, which allows to move more from your reserves to stocks.

Depending on how early you start, and how flexible you are with your spending, you may be able to reach 100% allocation to stocks before retirement, allowing you to sustain it for life. This can result in some combination of:

  1. Growing security (the fixed dollar withdrawal becomes a decreasing percent from a larger pot).
  2. Higher available spending (keeping the same withdrawal rate = a higher dollar amount, as the portfolio grows).

What is the catch? There are several catches:

  1. You have to stay perfectly disciplined with your strategy. It is tempting to sell low or put new savings elsewhere, when the news is grim. This can revert the entire long-term benefit.
  2. The plan is designed to allow selling a likely sustained portion (e.g. 3%-4% per year) for spending needs. This is fine as long as the needs have nothing to do with the investment performance. You may be tempted to sell low, to invest elsewhere. This is not a spending need, and if you are tempted to do that at low points, you are better off seeking a different plan in the first place.
  3. You may underestimate the needed reserves, or simply be surprised by something unplanned. As long as it comes at a normal point for the stock portfolio, there is no problem. But, it can hurt you during deep declines. Try to be realistic.

Quiz Answer:

What are the benefits of high investments in a diversified stock portfolio relative to withdrawals? (Multiple answers may be correct)

  1. They help get freedom from work. [Correct Answer]
  2. They add to your cash reserves, dollar for dollar.
  3. You can count a small portion of them as part of your cash reserves. [Correct Answer]
  4. They provide a potential snowball of accelerated increase in your wealth. [Correct Answer]

Explanation:

  1. They can cover your expenses while not working. If they are big enough, the investment growth/income can support long periods without work.
  2. Investments can be volatile, so you cannot assume that the full amount will be available for you at any point.
  3. You can count a likely sustainable withdrawal rate (typically 3%-4%) as part of your reserves, since that amount is likely to be there for you even during deep declines. Read this month’s article to learn more.
  4. Investments tend to grow by some percent on average. As the investments grow, a fixed percentage of larger pots becomes a large amount.
Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

Will Technology Stocks be the Leaders of the 2020s?

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Quiz!

8 of the 10 largest companies in the world in 1990 had something in common: what was it?

  1. They were all American.
  2. They were all technology stocks.
  3. They were all Japanese.
  4. They were all energy stocks.

Will Technology Stocks be the Leaders of the 2020s?

In 2021, the 10 largest companies in the world were technology stocks. Technology changed our lives, and the companies on the top 10 list are prominent names including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Amazon, Facebook and Tesla. Investing in such a prominent sector seems like a no-brainer – they are the future, and should stay dominant. While they declined more than the general stock market in 2021, it may seem reasonable to expect them to recover fast and continue their dominance.

It turns out that every decade or so, the top 10 most valuable companies in the world were dominated by a group that people fell in love with. In 1980 it was oil stocks, 1990: Japanese stocks, 2000: tech stocks, 2010: Chinese & energy stocks, 2021: tech stocks. (See the well-written article: https://mcusercontent.com/6750faf5c6091bc898da154ff/files/8a56f057-ed95-f5a2-56e2-cc7a5b72247d/GKDailyComment221206.pdf.)

Every time, there was a rational explanation for the dominance of the companies, and the continued dominance. While the story always sounded convincing, it never worked out. The world’s production isn’t driven by one sector. By the next decade, the favorite group underperformed, sometimes with decade-long declines, and got replaced by the next favorite.

Here are several tools to identify these situations:

  1. A group of stocks dominated the largest 10 companies in the world (by market cap = investment value).
  2. The valuations of this group of stocks were extremely high (measured by Price/Book Value, or P/B).
  3. The bubble popped, and the group of stocks underperformed the rest of the market for a number of months.

Once all 3 happened, the initial declines were not followed by a return to dominance in the following decade. Can you guess how many of these 3 applied to technology stocks in 2021? All 3! Seeing the dominant groups of stocks in each of the recent decades, can you guess the dominant group in the 2020’s?

Note that this article discussed investments, not intrinsic values of companies. To understand better, Price = book x price/book. The book value (or intrinsic value) of a company can grow nicely, but if the price/book starts very high and corrects itself, the price can still decline or grow much more slowly. This is how some great dominant companies in each decade end up being poor performers as investments.

Quiz Answer:

8 of the 10 largest companies in the world in 1990 had something in common: what was it?

  1. They were all American.
  2. They were all technology stocks.
  3. They were all Japanese. [Correct Answer]
  4. They were all energy stocks.

Explanation: Read this month’s article for more.

Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

Does a High Dollar Lead to Poor Emerging Markets Returns?

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Quiz!

What does a dollar far above average do to future emerging markets returns?

  1. It hurts emerging markets returns.
  2. It helps emerging markets returns.
  3. There is no correlation between a very high dollar and future emerging markets returns.

Does a High Dollar Lead to Poor Emerging Markets Returns?

I’ve seen articles explain how a high dollar hurts emerging market (EM) economies. With the dollar recently reaching the highest level since late 2002, some articles gave concerning messages related to emerging markets investments.

Historical evidence for the opposite: The history of EM investments shows opposite results. When the dollar reaches high levels, future returns of EM tend to be stronger than when the dollar is low. For example, the recent time we had such a high dollar (2002) was around the beginning of phenomenal 5 years for diversified EM stocks.

Explanations: Once the dollar is at unusually high levels, the negative effect of the dollar is priced into EM stocks, with lowered valuations (price/book and price/earnings). Given that the dollar is cyclical, at some point we got a reversal, with a declining dollar. Some of the logic of the articles can be used to explain the benefits of the declining dollar, helping EM stocks.

Caveats: This quick read shows counter evidence + logic to many articles you may read in some prominent sources. There are still big unknowns. The dollar may have just peaked, or it may go up further. The goal of this article isn’t finding the exact peak, but looking at odds for further increases vs. decreases. When a cyclical measure is above average, you would expect higher odds for the measure to go lower than higher.

Quiz Answer:

What does a dollar far above average do to future emerging markets returns?

  1. It hurts emerging markets returns.
  2. It helps emerging markets returns. [The Correct Answer, but read explanation]
  3. There is no correlation between a very high dollar and future emerging markets returns.

Explanation: A rising dollar lowers the value of emerging markets (EM) returns as measured in dollars. So, the past EM returns leading to the dollar highs are hurt. Future emerging markets returns depend on the future movement of the dollar. From a level above average, the dollar is more likely to decline in the future. That would lead to above average returns. A caveat is that this simply reflects odds, not guarantees or specific timing.

Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

Can you be Happy with your Volatile Stock Portfolio Whether it is Up or Down?

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Quiz!

Which of the following can make you happy while your investment is low? (There may be multiple answers.)

  1. You hold a company with a strong track record.
  2. You hold a company with market dominance.
  3. You take some risk off, and switch to bonds.
  4. You take some risk off, and switch to cash.
  5. You take some risk off, and switch to a well proven investment that did well over an entire decade.

Can you be Happy with your Volatile Stock Portfolio Whether it is Up or Down?

High investment growth comes with volatility, and is treated as the price for enjoying the high long-term gains. What if you could stay happy even during declines?

Conditions:

  1. When working, live according to your income. Don’t spend beyond what you make.
  2. When retired, spend a small percentage of your portfolio every year. Don’t plan on running out of money in your lifetime. 3%-4% is appropriate for most diversified portfolios with a high enough stock allocation.
  3. Invest in a highly diversified stock portfolio, without any specific bets (specific companies, countries, etc.).
  4. Structure the portfolio for high growth (emphasize stocks, value investing, small stocks, fast growing countries).
  5. Maintain iron discipline to stick with your portfolio for life, and never make changes at low points (unless you move to another investment with at least equally low valuations and equally high long-term returns).

If you follow the conditions above, you can be happy in up and down times, as follows:

  1. By nature, you have a fast growing portfolio in the long run, a cause for underlying happiness.
  2. When you enjoyed high past gains, you can be happy with the past results.
  3. When recent returns have been poor and valuations (price/book) are low, you can be happy about the high expected returns.
  4. If you have any new money to invest (savings from work, inheritance, money elsewhere), you can be very happy, because investing this money at a low point turns a temporary decline into a permanent excess gain (the gains on buying low).
  5. Over the cycles, the dollar value of the percent spending can go up as you reach higher peaks, leading to happiness about growing cash flows.

Most people struggle with such a plan, because the media pushes them to think about parts of the cycle, e.g. 5-10 years. This leads investors to be unhappy during downturns, and sometimes even destroy their life’s savings by selling low and buying something else high. Any high-growth investments can go through downturns of 5-10 or more years (e.g. the S&P 500 lost 30% of its value in the 10 years from 3/1999-2/2009), so it takes strength to stay disciplined. The best tool to maintain discipline is to watch valuations (price/book). After your high-growth investment goes through a long tough stretch, you can compare it to another investment that performed very well in recent years, and you are likely to see that your investment is enjoying substantially lower valuations, leading to substantially higher expected returns in upcoming years. While there is no guarantee for a specific turning point, you enjoy the nice combination of lower risk and higher expected returns.

Quiz Answer:

Which of the following can make you happy while your investment is low? (There may be multiple answers.)

  1. You hold a company with a strong track record.
  2. You hold a company with market dominance.
  3. You take some risk off, and switch to bonds.
  4. You take some risk off, and switch to cash.
  5. You take some risk off, and switch to a well proven investment that did well over an entire decade.

Explanations: None of the answers are correct!

  • 1-2 depend on concentrated investments. History taught us repeatedly that single companies aren’t immune to irreversible downturns.
  • 3-4 may feel good at the moment, but they turn a temporary downturn (assuming your investment is diversified and consistent) into a permanent loss.
  • 5 may also feel good at the moment, but investments are cyclical, and the best performer of the past 10 years is likely to underperform your poor performing investment in the next 10 years. A glance at the relative valuations (price/book) of the investments can confirm this risk.
Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

How to Use Volatility to Make Money

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Quiz!

If you add annually to a portfolio that drops 50% in one year and recovers the next year, what penalty or benefit do you get when compared to a portfolio with the same returns (0%) and no volatility?

  1. -50%
  2. No impact.
  3. +50%

How to Use Volatility to Make Money

Investment volatility is the investment’s movements up and down away from its average growth. It is commonly viewed as a negative, but for a disciplined long-term saver, it is typically a positive. A hypothetical example can demonstrate it. Let’s compare 2 portfolios with identical returns, and different volatility:

Portfolio 1

Portfolio 2

Year 1

0%

-50%

Year 2

0%

100%

Average

0%

0%

If you start with $100, both portfolios will be worth $100 after 2 years. Specifically, Portfolio 2 will go through the following values: (Year 1) $100 – 50% = $50. (Year 2) $50 + 100% = $100. The portfolios have identical average growth, but Portfolio 2 is far more volatile.

Let’s see the final balance if you add $100 in the beginning of each year:

Portfolio 1

Portfolio 2

Year 1

($100 + 0%) = $100

($100 – 50%) = $50

Year 2

($100 + $100) + 0% = $200

($50 + $100) + 100% = $300

Even though both portfolios have the same average growth, when adding to both portfolios identical amounts each year, the more volatile portfolio ended up 50% higher ($300 vs. $200).

How is this possible? The percentage going back up is greater than the original percentage going down. When a portfolio recovers from a 50% decline it goes up 100%. This is because the percentage going up is relative to a lower starting amount. While old money simply recovers, new money that was invested low goes up $100 – double the -$50 impact of the decline.

Notes:

  1. Some investors lose faith in their portfolio after declines, and hold off on investing (or even sell). If you do that, you can negate the entire benefit of volatility and even hurt your returns.
  2. Even with discipline, there is a special case that can lead to a negative effect. The case involves no up period after a down period, for example, only up years followed by only down years. This is not a concern for disciplined lifelong investors, because such a sequence is limited to one cycle or less.

Quiz Answer:

If you add annually to a portfolio that drops 50% in one year and recovers the next year, what penalty or benefit do you get when compared to a portfolio with the same returns (0%) and no volatility?

  1. -50%
  2. No impact.
  3. +50% [The Correct Answer]

Explanation: See this month’s article for an analysis of this scenario.

Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

Warren Buffett’s Strategy vs. Quality Asset Management’s

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Quiz!

Which of the following are common to Warren Buffett and Quality Asset Management?

  1. Value investing
  2. Home bias
  3. Profitability bias
  4. Reduced volatility

Warren Buffett’s Strategy vs. Quality Asset Management’s

Warren Buffet is one of the greatest investors of all times. Given that his fund, Berkshire Hathaway, holds a small number of stocks, you may think that his strong performance was the result of superior stock selection (a.k.a. alpha). A study that was published in 2013 (https://www.nber.org/papers/w19681) found that the benefit of his stock selection was statistically insignificant, attributing virtually the entire performance to structural decisions. Below I review the sources of his performance that are in common with Quality Asset Management (QAM), and those that are different.

In common:

  1. Value: Both invest in companies with a low price relative to the company’s book value (low P/B).
  2. Quality: Both invest in profitable companies.
  3. Reduced Volatility: Buffett buys low volatility stocks that historically resulted in excess returns. QAM achieves similar results (reduced volatility, excess returns) by excluding extremely small and expensive (high P/B) stocks as well as stocks experiencing negative momentum.

Buffett’s benefits:

  1. Leverage: Buffett employs leverage of 1.4 to 1.6, with very low costs of borrowing thanks to using capital from his insurance business (premiums received until claims where paid), and interest-free loans: differed tax on depreciation, accounts payable and option contract liabilities. QAM helps clients use home mortgages & HELOCs (home equity lines of credit) to generate leverage, when desired, possible (the client can qualify for the loans) & subject to a risk analysis. In addition, it invests deferred obligations, including income taxes until due (e.g. when the client pays 110% of past year’s taxes in estimated taxes, and enjoys faster growing income). QAM uses very low cost margin for loans backed by unused HELOCs, and other sources. While there are some similarities, this strategy is not used for all of QAM’s client’s, and the leverage level declines with the growth of the portfolio relative to the client’s home value. In addition, the interest rate that Buffett gets from his insurance arm is lower than the interest rates that QAM’s clients get. Therefore, this is usually a benefit to Buffett relative to QAM.

QAM’s benefits:

  1. Size: Early on, Buffett focused on small companies. Given the size of his fund, he cannot practically focus on a small number of small companies, and he developed a bias towards large companies. QAM has a bias towards small companies that is likely generate a return premium relative to Buffett. This benefit is likely to be sustainable for a very long time, given QAM’s strong diversification.
  2. Country: Buffett has a bias towards American companies. QAM doesn’t have this bias, and it focuses on companies from less developed countries. This is likely to generate a return premium.

Quiz Answer:

Which of the following are common to Warren Buffett and Quality Asset Management?

  1. Value investing [Correct Answer]
  2. Home bias
  3. Profitability bias [Correct Answer]
  4. Reduced volatility [Correct Answer]

Explanations: Please read the article above for explanations.

Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

What do Stocks do when Interest Rates Rise?

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Quiz!

In the past 20 years, how did Extended-Term Component perform in a period of rising rates from low rates?

  1. It gained more often than declined.
  2. It declined more often than gained.
  3. It gained consistently in all cases.
  4. It declined consistently in all cases.
  5. As with most things, the results were mixed.

What do Stocks do when Interest Rates Rise?

This article reviews the impact of rising rates from a low point on the high-volatility high-growth stock portfolio Extended-Term Component, both empirically and logically.

 

Empirically: We have 2 cases of rising rates from a low point in the live history since 1998:

Increase Date Starting Rate Trend information Performance since rate increases started Duration Rates before peak portfolio
6/30/2004 1% Gain started 1.5 years earlier +277% 3.3 years Reduced for a month after plateaued for over a year
12/17/2015 0%-0.25% Gain started after a short-lived (35 days) 12% decline +61% so far (including the initial decline) 2.2 years so far Peak not established yet

So far, we enjoyed phenomenal gains in both cases. While this data is not statistically significant, these strong results dispel the myth that you should expect declines when rates go up. So far, all [2] cases go against this theory.

Logically: The Fed acts in reaction to US and non-US economic activity. It lowered rates as a result of poor economic performance, in an attempt to stimulate the economies. Very low rates tend to be a result of big financial shocks, as we have seen in 2000-2002 and 2008. After these big shocks, the Fed was slow to reverse course and raise rates, because the risk of deflation seemed greater than the risk of inflation. By the time it raised rates, there were clear signs of economic improvement around the world. Additional rate increases were done cautiously after the economies continued to improve. The positive effect of economic improvements was greater than the negative effect of rising rates, by design. In addition, with such low starting rates, it took a long while for rates to stop being accommodative to the economy.

More Good News: While stocks did well as rates went up from low levels, you may expect stocks to get hurt when rates reach higher levels. In the history we have since 1998, the 1-year return leading to high peaks, when interest rates reached a cycle-high, was not only positive, but unusually high: The 1-year return was 92% leading to the 2000 peak, and 73% leading to the 2007 peak.

Quiz Answer:

In the past 20 years, how did Extended-Term Component perform in a period of rising rates from low rates?

  1. It gained more often than declined.
  2. It declined more often than gained.
  3. It gained consistently in all cases. [The Correct Answer]
  4. It declined consistently in all cases.
  5. As with most things, the results were mixed.

Explanation: Please read this month’s article for an explanation. Note that while the results were consistent, there were only two instances in total over 20 years, so these results are not statistically significant. A conclusion that is safe to make: we cannot count on high odds of declines as rates go up, because the history so far goes strongly against this theory.

Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

The Secret to Getting Rich

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Quiz!

Which of the following investment strategies are based on biases, and can lead to poor performance? (May be multiple answers)

  1. Buy investments that exhibited rapid growth of 15% in the past 5 years, relative to their long-term average of 5%.
  2. Buy well established companies that are not going anywhere.
  3. Buy obscure small companies that you don’t understand.
  4. Buy companies you clearly understand.

The Secret to Getting Rich

Have you ever heard a secret for getting rich? As an investment advisor, I hear such ideas frequently, and evaluate each of them with a critical eye. There is one thing in common with most, maybe all, ideas that work: they go against human nature, or deeply engrained human biases. If this sounds surprising, a few examples may help:

Good Action

Bias

Biased Action / Human Nature

Defer spending to invest, and enjoy compounded growth

Present Bias

Emphasize the present over the less tangible future

Invest in fast growing (and volatile) investment classes

Myopic Loss Aversion

Avoid declines, even temporary

Buy low: value stocks (low Price/Book), AND investments at a low point of the cycle (after years of declines)

Recency Bias

Prefer investments that did best in the recent 5-10 years

Diversify across countries

Home Bias

Buy familiar stocks that are close to home

Own small stocks

Familiarity Bias

Buy large stocks that are more familiar

Enjoy momentum

Disposition Effect

Sell too soon, after seeing a gain, and too late after seeing a loss

Buy small & unknown profitable companies

Familiarity Bias

Focus on known profitable companies over less known ones

A couple of notes about the list above:

  1. If some of the profitable actions listed in the first column seem natural to you, you are in luck, having strategies that are uncomfortable to others, but comfortable to you, letting you likely enjoy excess gains compared to the average investor.
  2. An issue that makes most of the above especially difficult is that they tend to show poor results for extended series of years. It requires a big commitment, to enjoy the long-term benefits.

If you hear of an idea for getting rich that is easy to implement, both technically and also in terms of human nature, you should be skeptical. The ideas that survive the test of time tend to be difficult or go against human nature. Otherwise, many people will pursue the investment, bidding up its price and hurting future returns.

Now that you realize how difficult it is to follow the good advice for growing your money, should you give up? No. Here are some ideas:

  1. Think of tangible examples for the tradeoffs. For example, would you give up spending $10,000/year for the next 20 years, in return for $38,700/year for the following 20 years (assuming 7% real growth), or one lump sum of $521,000 in 20 years? Think about a specific dream you can fulfill with these amounts.
  2. Get the longest data you can, for the asset classes of your investments (e.g. US large stocks, International value stocks, real estate in various locations), and get a sense for the length of cycles. If some past cycles reached 15 years, never use the past 5-10 years to conclude that there is a new normal.
  3. After a long tough stretch, when the media may be most discouraging, try to identify the recent peak or bottom. If the peak was a good number of years back, or the bottom was fairly recent, you should become more optimistic. If you see low valuations (low Price/Book for stocks or high affordability for real estate), it should further support your optimism.

Quiz Answer:

Which of the following investment strategies are based on biases, and can lead to poor performance? (May be multiple answers)

  1. Buy investments that exhibited rapid growth of 15% in the past 5 years, relative to their long-term average of 5%. [Correct Answer]
  2. Buy well established companies that are not going anywhere. [Correct Answer]
  3. Buy obscure small companies that you don’t understand.
  4. Buy companies you clearly understand. [Correct Answer]

Explanations:

  1. Recency Bias. An investment that did exceptionally well (relative to its average) for 5 years may be overvalued, and is at an elevated risk.
  2. Familiarity Bias. Well established companies tend to be well known, and you may pay a premium for the comfort of the familiar, well established name.
  3. As long as you stay diversified, and stick with small companies throughout the cycle, you are likely to get a return premium for holding these less familiar and less comfortable investments.
  4. Familiarity Bias. See #2.
Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

Can you Guess the Top Performing Country Last Year?

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Quiz!

Brazil is in the midst of a devastating recession – the worst on record, with GDP of -3.5% for 2016 following -3.8% for 2015. Can you guess the returns of Brazil’s stock market for 2016?

  1. -70%
  2. -62%
  3. -14%
  4. 0%
  5. +24%
  6. +66%

Can you Guess the Top Performing Country Last Year?

As an Investment Advisor, a fiduciary that is responsible for the life’s savings of entire families, you would expect to count on me to follow the economic news closely and be ready to react to any new developments. Do I do this? I do the exact opposite – I separate my investment decisions from economic news. If I were to depend on the news for investment decisions, I could hurt your life’s savings badly.

A recent example from 2016 can demonstrate this counterintuitive point. Brazil spent the entire year in a devastating recession – the worst on record (over more than 100 years). Unemployment climbed throughout the year from 9% to 11.9%. The president was impeached and there were numerous corruption scandals. Predicting this year could have made you a fortune by shorting (making money when stocks decline) Brazilian stocks in 2016, right? Not so fast. The Brazilian stock market gained +66% in 2016. Not only did it not decline – it was the top performing country for the year.

How is it possible to get stellar returns during the worst economic decline on record? The answer is simple – ignoring prices. The consensus view was for a long and deep economic decline, which would hurt Brazilian companies. In reaction, people sold Brazilian stocks to avoid the declines. The problem was that people kept selling these stocks without regard to prices. Why is this a problem? Say that in normal times a basket of Brazilian stocks is worth $100. Now comes a big recession, and the new realistic value is, say, $80. You would expect rational people to sell until the price reaches $80. But many investors see a struggling economy and sell with disregard to the price. Others cannot imagine a turnaround and sell to reflect a multi-year depression. So, the continued selling brought the basket to a much lower value, say $40. This reflects an unusually bad expectation – far worse than reality. Now comes additional moderately negative news, lowering the realistic value from $80 to $75. With the news being far less negative than expected, people become more positive, and are more likely to accept a value closer to reality. They are ready to correct some of the excess decline, leading to a surge from $40 to, say, $66.40 (a gain of 66%), all while the economy is doing poorly. While the numbers in this example where made up, the mechanism explains what could have led to the surge of Brazilian stocks.

As of 9/30/2016, Brazil represented 6.82% of emerging markets, while the allocation to it in the emerging market portion of QAM’s portfolios was 9.19%. This emphasis reflects the deep value focus (a focus on low priced stocks) of these portfolios, something that often leads to outperformance compared to the general market during recovery years.

Quiz Answer:

Brazil is in the midst of a devastating recession – the worst on record, with GDP of -3.5% for 2016 following -3.8% for 2015. Can you guess the returns of Brazil’s stock market for 2016?

  1. -70%
  2. -62%
  3. -14%
  4. 0%
  5. +24%
  6. +66% [The Correct Answer]
Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

Can You Make Money in a Down Market?

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Quiz!

What are the outcomes of consistently adding to a portfolio during declines of 20% + 20% followed by a 2 year recovery (25% + 25%), instead of using a stable 10%-per-year investment for the new money?

  1. You throw good money after bad – you lose money while feeling lousy.
  2. You lose money, but at least you stay conservative by sticking with your plan. Once there are new peaks, your entire investment will enjoy future growth.
  3. Not only you make money by buying low – you magically outperform the consistent 10% portfolio.
  4. You make money by buying low, and with the new peak your entire investment will enjoy future growth.

Can You Make Money in a Down Market?

Imagine living through a long decline period. If you are retired and your entire life’s savings are invested in your portfolio according to your plan, you can relax knowing that your low withdrawal rate is likely to sustain your money for as long as you live.

If you are still in saving mode, or have money that was not put to work in your portfolio, you have choices. Let’s review two different options:

  1. You wait for the portfolio to recover to gain more comfort, and after it proved itself, you add more money to it. You don’t add money to a losing portfolio.
  2. You add all money available, whether it is savings from work, money invested elsewhere, equity in your home that you can borrow (subject to a risk assessment), or an inheritance.

Let’s continue with an example: Say you had 1M that declined for 2 years, and then recovered in 2 years. Also, say you had 100k to add per year. During the declining period, you choose between diverting to a portfolio that gained 10% per year and adding to the portfolio that simply declined and recovered with no new gains (as described in 1 & 2 above, respectively). Let’s see the financial impact of the 2 options:

1M Portfolio state Value of

original 1M

 Value of new investments
Option #1: Invest at 10% Option #2: Invest in portfolio
20% decline + saved 100k 800k 100k 100k
20% decline + saved 100k 640k 100k + 10% + 100k = 210k 100k – 20% + 100k = 180k
25% gain + saved 100k 800k 210k + 10% + 100k = 331k 180k + 25% + 100k = 325k
25% gain to full recovery 1M 331k + 10% = 364k 325k + 25% + 100k = 506k
Performance of deposits 364k / 300k – 1 = 21% 506k / 300k -1 = 69%

After 4 years, option #1 would result in 364k, while option #2 would result in 506k.

In option #1, your entire mental focus is on the wait for a recovery, to regain comfort with the portfolio. You have no good feelings about the portfolio until you fully regained the lost grounds. In the meantime, you feel good about growing your new savings at 10% per year, and are happy that you did at least one smart thing.

In option #2, you keep adding to the portfolio, ignoring its behavior. At first, you feel good buying low. As the decline continues, you are tempted to feel that you are throwing good money after bad, but you remind yourself that the portfolio is far more attractive the lower it gets, and the new money can enjoy this benefit. After one year of gains, you can already celebrate the impact on your recent deposit. So, instead of focusing on the remaining path to recovery, you can enjoy the hard dollars that you gained during the initial part of the recovery. By the full recovery, you enjoy far better results than 10% per year even though you added to a portfolio that had 0% returns from peak to the new peak.

Quiz Answer:

What are the outcomes of consistently adding to a portfolio during declines of 20% & 20% followed by a 2 year recovery, instead of using a stable 10%-per-year investment for the new money?

  1. You throw good money after bad – you lose money while feeling lousy.
  2. You lose money, but at least you stay conservative by sticking with your plan. Once there are new peaks, your entire investment will enjoy future growth.
  3. Not only you make money by buying low – you magically outperform the consistent 10% portfolio. [The Correct Answer]
  4. You make money by buying low, and with the new peak your entire investment will enjoy future growth.

The article above provides an explanation.

Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data