Stocks

What Moves Interest Rates?

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Quiz!

What are reasons for the Fed to lower interest rates? (There may be multiple correct answers.)

  1. A decline in Inflation.
  2. A mild recession in the US.
  3. Core PCE Inflation reaches the 2% goal.
  4. A slight increase in unemployment.
  5. A severe recession in the US.
  6. Very high unemployment.

What Moves Interest Rates?

For a long time, some experts predicted a decline in interest rates. How could they be so wrong for so long? What really drives the Fed’s decisions?

Topic

Expectation

Reality

What are normal interest rates?

Very low, after 0% for years

Closer to the current 5.5%

What inflation is needed?

Declining inflation

An absolute level of 2%

What is the target inflation?

Higher than 2%, maybe 3%

2%

How does inflation change?

Linearly

The decline typically slows down as it approaches 2%

How are employment & inflation balanced?

Employment isn’t a big factor.

As long as inflation isn’t very high, we deserve low interest rates.

With unemployment so low, the main goal is to lower inflation

What are the Fed’s biases?

They want low interest rates

They don’t want to repeat the 1970’s where prematurely lowered rates let inflation spike again

What is good?

Low interest rates

Maximum employment with 2% inflation

Explanations: It seems that some people are driven by wishful thinking more than reality. Investors used the extremely low interest rates of the 2010s to justify extreme large US stock valuations, and they are eager to see interest rates go down. They hope to see very low interest rates as both the norm and the target. The Fed thinks very differently. They have two goals in mind (based on their job description): maximum employment and 2% inflation. With the employment goal in place, their focus is on getting inflation down. They saw inflation spike out of control in the 1970’s, and they are trying to avoid a repeat. The Fed said clearly that they will go as far as needed to reach their inflation goal.

What should we expect? Inflation is still nearly double its target: 3.5% vs. 2%. With inflation declines typically slowing down as we head towards the target 2%, we may have a long period with high interest rates. It is reasonable to expect the Fed to space out the rate increases further and further apart, as long as inflation keeps moderating. It may keep the interest rates the same for an extended period until inflation gets close to its target 2%.

Are there other scenarios? Yes. If the economy slows down and unemployment surges, the Fed will go back to a balancing act between employment and inflation, and could lower interest rates for a while. In that case, stock prices could do the opposite of mainstream expectations – they may decline. This could be most pronounced for stocks with the highest valuations (as measured by Price/Book).

Should we welcome lower interest rates? At first thought, lower interest rates are compelling, making it easier to fuel growth with cheap borrowing for companies & individuals. When considering the drivers of the Fed’s actions, lower interest rates without much lower inflation may be bad news – reflecting a response to a recession.

What can you do? You can structure your investments to benefit from high interest rates, and welcome the reality. Value stocks (with low price/book) tend to do unusually well with sustained high interest rates (not every month and not guaranteed). Note that your ideal investment allocation depends on your overall risk profile and goals.

Quiz Answer:

What are reasons for the Fed to lower interest rates? (There may be multiple correct answers.)

  1. A decline in Inflation.
  2. A mild recession in the US.
  3. Core PCE Inflation reaches the 2% goal. [Correct Answer]
  4. A slight increase in unemployment.
  5. A severe recession in the US. [Correct Answer]
  6. Very high unemployment. [Correct Answer]

Explanations:

  1. The Fed seeks 2% inflation, not just a decline in inflation. Declines can moderate interest rate increases and space them out more, but less likely to lead to a reversal long before approaching the target 2%.
  2. The Fed said repeatedly that it will accept a mild recession if needed to control inflation.
  3. When Core PCE Inflation reaches its 2% goal, interest rates don’t need to stay elevated and would likely move down.
  4. Slightly higher unemployment would still be low historically, and wouldn’t justify lower interest rates without much lower inflation.
  5. A severe recession would likely lead to lower interest rates, though not guaranteed if inflation spikes very high.
  6. Very high unemployment would likely lead to lower interest rates, especially if inflation isn’t very high.
Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

What is the Impact of High Inflation on Stock Returns?

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Quiz!

Which stocks are riskiest when inflation is high? (Note: stocks in each group are split between Growth and Value, with Value getting the lower Price/Book.)

  1. Value stocks that are priced far above their average valuations.
  2. Growth stocks.
  3. Value stocks.

What is the Impact of High Inflation on Stock Returns?

We are experiencing very high inflation, last seen in the early 1980’s. What is the Impact of High Inflation on Stock Returns?

  1. Negative: It hurts stocks, by reducing stock valuations (Price/Book) to reflect a lower value of future earnings. It hurts growth stocks with high valuations especially hard. Examples are S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
  2. Positive: It ultimately helps stocks, because high inflation = higher prices => higher earnings for the companies.

The bigger the spike in inflation, the more stocks are likely to decline in the short run, because the negative forces can be greater than the positive ones. Once stock valuations adjust to higher inflation and higher interest rates (that are used to combat inflation), the positive impact tends to be much stronger, especially for value stocks.

Key takeaways:

  1. When inflation spikes, you should be especially cautious of stocks with very high valuations. Now the largest tech stocks are priced extremely high, something familiar from past cycles. In the 1970’s, we had the nifty-fifty, also called “one-decision” stocks. Counter to expectations at the time, they crashed badly despite being the most prominent of US stocks (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nifty_Fifty). Stock returns adhere to the formula, price = book value x (price / book value). If the valuations (price / book value) are very high, even the best company in the world can see its stock price drop.
  2. Value stocks (with low valuations, or price / book-value) are better positioned for high inflation, for 2 reasons: (1) Immediate: there is no big correction necessary to valuations; (2) Ongoing: more of their earnings are from the near-term, with a smaller needed discount to future earnings.
  3. Even value stocks can be expensive at times. For example, US Large Value stocks are currently very expensive (but still less than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq). In stark contrast, non-US Value stocks are priced low.

Quiz Answer:

Which stocks are riskiest when inflation is high? (Note: stocks in each group are split between Growth and Value, with Value getting the lower Price/Book.)

  1. Value stocks that are priced far above their average valuations. [Correct Answer]
  2. Growth stocks. [Correct Answer]
  3. Value stocks.

Explanation:

  1. While value stocks tend to have low Price/Book, sometimes an entire collection of stocks becomes expensive, including value stocks. A current example is US Large stocks.
  2. Growth stocks tend to have earnings far into the future, that need to be discounted by high interest rates (the tool used to combat high inflation).
  3. Value stocks are priced lower and have nearer-term earnings that not impacted as much by higher interest rates. The increase in income (along with inflation) can become the dominant force.

See article for more explanations.

Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

S&P 500 10-Year Returns if The Past Repeats

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Quiz!

Question 1: In the past 10 years, how much did the S&P 500 companies grow their book values (change in price divided by change in price/book)?

  1. 16.2%
  2. 6%
  3. -6%

Question 2: Last time the S&P 500 had approximately today’s valuations, what was its average annual performance in the following 10 years?

  1. 16.2%
  2. 10%
  3. -1%

S&P 500 10-Year Returns if The Past Repeats

The S&P 500 enjoyed strong returns averaging 16.2% per year in the past 10 years. 10 years look like a long track record, enough to entice investing in the S&P 500 today, based on this data. Let’s evaluate this theory:

1. Actual book-value growth calculated at a mere 6%: What was the growth in the book value of the S&P 500 companies in the past 10 years? We can calculate it as the difference between compounding the 16.2% price increase per year and about 9.6% price/book increase per year (x2.5 going from under 2 to nearly 5), which is 6% per year. It turns out that the past 10 years were not very exciting for the S&P 500 companies.

2. Valuations declined 9.6% per year: From the most recent cycle when valuations reached today’s valuations (year 2000), they declined from about 5 to about 2 in 10 years, which is equal to -9.6% per year.

3. If the past repeats itself, we can get -3.3% annual decline for 10 years = -28% total: If the companies do as well as the past 10 years = 6% per year, and valuations revert to normal as happened last time we reached today’s valuations = -9.6% per year, we get an annual decline of -3.3% per year, and a total decline of -28%.

We don’t know what the future will actually be. But, if you are projecting the past to the future, you should prepare for material declines for the S&P 500 over the next 10 years.

Quiz Answer:

Question 1: In the past 10 years, how much did the S&P 500 companies grow their book values (change in price divided by change in price/book)?

  1. 16.2%
  2. 6% [Correct Answer]
  3. -6%

Question 2: Last time the S&P 500 had approximately today’s valuations, what was its average annual performance in the following 10 years?

  1. 16.2%
  2. 10%
  3. -1% [Correct Answer]

See article for more explanations.

Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

Tipping Point for Value?

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Quiz!

Which factors may contribute to value (low Price/Book) outperformance moving forward? (There may be multiple answers.)

  1. A change in sentiment.
  2. Rising bond interest rates.
  3. Expectation for inflation.
  4. Very low valuations.
  5. Very low valuations relative to growth (high Price/Book) stocks.
  6. Economic recovery from the pandemic.
  7. The best option out there.

Tipping Point for Value?

Last year will go into the history books given the pandemic. But another, less noticed, rare thing happened. Growth stocks, those with a high price relative to the company’s book value (P/B), or intrinsic value, went from very expensive to extremely expensive – a level barely second to the late 1990’s. While they’ve become more expensive for a while, there was a big spike in unprofitable small growth stocks. Last time we had a spike even close to this magnitude was around 1999. This is very reassuring for Value stocks, because often a long-lasting trend ends in a big spike in the direction of the trend, followed by a sharp reversal. For value stocks in the US, last time the reversal meant a 50% outperformance in a mere 2 years.

There are a number of logical reasons to see a reversal at this point:

  1. A change in sentiment: The reversal already started a few months ago, long enough for people to take note, and start treating it more like a new trend than noise.
  2. Expectation for inflation: Two forces are leading to an expectation for higher inflation: (1) Dramatic government stimulus; (2) The Fed planning to hold interest rates low until after inflation overshoots the typical target. Bond prices already started declining reflecting this expectation.
  3. Very low valuations relative to growth (high Price/Book) stocks: With the valuations of growth stocks going so much higher relative to value stocks, growth stocks became much more dangerous. People took note and started shifting towards value stocks.
  4. Economic recovery from the pandemic: Value stocks tend to outperform at times of economic recovery.

Note that value stocks outside the US have much lower valuations than US stocks – near record difference, making them even more appealing. As always, there could be surprises, and it is important to structure your financial picture to account for them.

Quiz Answer:

Which factors may contribute to value (low Price/Book) outperformance moving forward? (There may be multiple answers.)

  1. A change in sentiment. [Correct Answer]
  2. Rising bond interest rates. [Correct Answer]
  3. Expectation for inflation. [Correct Answer]
  4. Very low valuations.
  5. Very low valuations relative to growth (high Price/Book) stocks. [Correct Answer]
  6. Economic recovery from the pandemic. [Correct Answer]
  7. The best option out there. [Correct Answer]

Explanations: #4 is only partly correct. In the US value stocks are not low relative to their historic average, though they are very low relative to growth stocks. Outside the US, valuations are clearly low.

See article for more explanations about the correct answers.

Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

What Happens When Interest Rates & Inflation Rise?

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Quiz!

What typically happens to stocks when interest rates & inflation rise?  (There may be multiple answers.)

  1. Stocks go down.
  2. Stocks go up.
  3. Growth (high P/B) stocks go down.
  4. Growth (high P/B) stocks go up.
  5. Value (low P/B) stocks go down.
  6. Value (low P/B) stocks go up.

Look for the answer below and read this month’s article for a discussion.

What Happens When Interest Rates & Inflation Rise?

Optimism about the pandemic’s direction led to expectation for inflation along with rising interest rates in the past month.  The direct impact of inflation and rising rates is damage to stocks & bonds.  This is especially true for growth (high P/B) stocks that obtain much of their value from earnings far into the future – earnings that are less valuable, the higher the inflation.

Beyond the initial reaction, value and Emerging Markets (EM) investments tend to do very well from conditions like today.  The closest example is the behavior of Extended-Term Component (ET) in 2003.

Extended-Term Component (ET) Behavior with Expectation for Higher Interest Rates and Inflation
6/9/2003 2/26/2021
ET P/B 0.93 1.01 (lower equivalent given the profitability tilt since 2014)
Time since recent low 8 months 11 months
10-year treasury rates Increased fast (2% in 2 months) Increased (1% in 7 months)
Federal rates went up starting 1 year later (6/30/2004) ?
Federal rates went up by 4.25% in 2 years! ?
Dollar High and declining High, and peaked recently
ET gained An additional 449% in 4.5 years ?

Every case is different, and I don’t necessarily expect a repeat gain of 449% in 4.5 years.  This information shows that rising rates have not been bad for your investments historically.

Note that in the example above, growth stocks also did very well, but their valuations were substantially lower than today.  Between the positive forces of the economy and stimulus and the negative impact of extreme valuations, it is tough to predict gains or declines for growth stocks.

While I cannot predict future returns, there are a number of factors that would lead me to optimism for both EM and Value investments in upcoming years.  Here is some logic:

  1. Interest rates reached record lows in recent months, and there are mounting forces for higher interest rates and inflation.  This hurts growth stocks, making value stocks more attractive on a relative basis.
  1. During economic recoveries, cyclical value stocks tend to do especially well.
  1. The dollar is relatively high, and has plenty of room to go down, increasing the value of non-US investments.
  1. An economic recovery from the pandemic would lead to a benefit for stocks in general, especially ones that are not already priced high.  The discount of value stocks relative to growth stocks is still at a real extreme.
  1. Beyond value vs. growth, EM Value stocks are priced extremely low relative to US Value stocks.

While the 2003 example above seems most relevant, a more recent situation of rising rates was 2016-2017, where ET enjoyed a 99% gain in about 2 years, within weeks after the Fed started raising rates.  To emphasize, no specific result is guaranteed, but fear of rising rates hurting EM and Value stocks would not be rooted in past experience.

Quiz Answer:

What typically happens to stocks when interest rates & inflation rise?  (There may be multiple answers.)

  1. Stocks go down.
  2. Stocks go up.  [Correct Answer]
  3. Growth (high P/B) stocks go down.
  4. Growth (high P/B) stocks go up.  [Correct Answer]
  5. Value (low P/B) stocks go down.
  6. Value (low P/B) stocks go up.  [Correct Answer]

Explanations:  In general, stocks tend to go up when interest rates & inflation go up, reflecting an expanding economy.  Value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks, as the higher rates & inflation hurt the value of future earnings.  Note that the valuations of growth stocks are extremely high at this point, so it is tough to project their future.

Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

What do Stocks do when Interest Rates Rise?

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Quiz!

In the past 20 years, how did Extended-Term Component perform in a period of rising rates from low rates?

  1. It gained more often than declined.
  2. It declined more often than gained.
  3. It gained consistently in all cases.
  4. It declined consistently in all cases.
  5. As with most things, the results were mixed.

What do Stocks do when Interest Rates Rise?

This article reviews the impact of rising rates from a low point on the high-volatility high-growth stock portfolio Extended-Term Component, both empirically and logically.

 

Empirically: We have 2 cases of rising rates from a low point in the live history since 1998:

Increase Date Starting Rate Trend information Performance since rate increases started Duration Rates before peak portfolio
6/30/2004 1% Gain started 1.5 years earlier +277% 3.3 years Reduced for a month after plateaued for over a year
12/17/2015 0%-0.25% Gain started after a short-lived (35 days) 12% decline +61% so far (including the initial decline) 2.2 years so far Peak not established yet

So far, we enjoyed phenomenal gains in both cases. While this data is not statistically significant, these strong results dispel the myth that you should expect declines when rates go up. So far, all [2] cases go against this theory.

Logically: The Fed acts in reaction to US and non-US economic activity. It lowered rates as a result of poor economic performance, in an attempt to stimulate the economies. Very low rates tend to be a result of big financial shocks, as we have seen in 2000-2002 and 2008. After these big shocks, the Fed was slow to reverse course and raise rates, because the risk of deflation seemed greater than the risk of inflation. By the time it raised rates, there were clear signs of economic improvement around the world. Additional rate increases were done cautiously after the economies continued to improve. The positive effect of economic improvements was greater than the negative effect of rising rates, by design. In addition, with such low starting rates, it took a long while for rates to stop being accommodative to the economy.

More Good News: While stocks did well as rates went up from low levels, you may expect stocks to get hurt when rates reach higher levels. In the history we have since 1998, the 1-year return leading to high peaks, when interest rates reached a cycle-high, was not only positive, but unusually high: The 1-year return was 92% leading to the 2000 peak, and 73% leading to the 2007 peak.

Quiz Answer:

In the past 20 years, how did Extended-Term Component perform in a period of rising rates from low rates?

  1. It gained more often than declined.
  2. It declined more often than gained.
  3. It gained consistently in all cases. [The Correct Answer]
  4. It declined consistently in all cases.
  5. As with most things, the results were mixed.

Explanation: Please read this month’s article for an explanation. Note that while the results were consistent, there were only two instances in total over 20 years, so these results are not statistically significant. A conclusion that is safe to make: we cannot count on high odds of declines as rates go up, because the history so far goes strongly against this theory.

Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

Insurance vs. Diversified Stocks

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Quiz!

Which of the following is typically true?

  1. It is best to buy insurance for most risks for peace of mind.
  2. It is best to avoid insurance and invest money in stocks, because stocks grow fast and can be used to cover the otherwise insured risks.
  3. It is best to insure against devastating risks.
  4. It is best to insure against non-devastating risks, and buy stocks to handle devastating risks.

Insurance vs. Diversified Stocks

The table below presents a basic comparison between diversified stocks and insurance. The first two rows show similar benefits, while the remaining rows show where each approach shines.

Topic Diversified Stocks Insurance Comments
Distribute risk at any point The growth of 1,000 stocks overshadows one company’s bankruptcy. By pooling 1,000 homeowners, the premiums paid cover the cost of one flooded house. Both help diversify risks at a given instant.
Distribute risk over time The growth of stocks over a full cycle overshadows the decline periods within the cycle. The premiums paid by a large group of homeowners over time cover hurricane damages to a large group of homeowners. Both help diversify risks over time.
Devastating risks House burns down without big money saved => bankruptcy. House burns down => covered by insurance. Insurance is critical for covering risks that would devastate you.
Non-devastating risks Can sell from stocks to cover the low risks. Otherwise, the saved insurance premiums that are invested in stocks are likely to grow dramatically over a lifetime. The insurance premiums are lost. Stocks are typically more beneficial for risks that are not devastating.
Availability The money is available for you at all times, without being at the mercy of an insurance company, but the value will be lower during stock declines. Claims can be declined for various reasons. Insurance: Read carefully the exclusions list for insurance, and have money set aside for declined claims.
Stocks: Have plenty more than the self-insured amounts, to account for stock declines.
Negotiated pricing Not applicable This applies for some types of insurance. Health insurers negotiate lower prices. You get negotiated healthcare costs even with high deductible health insurance, in case this item tips the scale for you.
Risk of under-treatment Risk of avoiding treatment that would otherwise be covered by insurance. Having low-deductible health insurance can encourage treating high-risk problems that seem minor at first If choosing self-insurance using stocks (e.g. by having high-deductible health insurance), be careful to not avoid necessary treatments that you would get with low-deductible insurance.
Overhead No overhead Insurance involves administrative costs and profits to the health insurer, that you pay for. Unless you are a high risk person for using the insurance, your overall average cost may be higher with insurance.

Quiz Answer:

Which of the following is typically true?

  1. It is best to buy insurance for most risks for peace of mind.
  2. It is best to avoid insurance and invest money in stocks, because stocks grow fast and can be used to cover the otherwise insured risks.
  3. It is best to insure against devastating risks. [The Correct Answer]
  4. It is best to insure against non-devastating risks, and buy stocks to handle devastating risks.

Explanations: Read the article for explanations.

Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

Can you Guess the Top Performing Country Last Year?

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Quiz!

Brazil is in the midst of a devastating recession – the worst on record, with GDP of -3.5% for 2016 following -3.8% for 2015. Can you guess the returns of Brazil’s stock market for 2016?

  1. -70%
  2. -62%
  3. -14%
  4. 0%
  5. +24%
  6. +66%

Can you Guess the Top Performing Country Last Year?

As an Investment Advisor, a fiduciary that is responsible for the life’s savings of entire families, you would expect to count on me to follow the economic news closely and be ready to react to any new developments. Do I do this? I do the exact opposite – I separate my investment decisions from economic news. If I were to depend on the news for investment decisions, I could hurt your life’s savings badly.

A recent example from 2016 can demonstrate this counterintuitive point. Brazil spent the entire year in a devastating recession – the worst on record (over more than 100 years). Unemployment climbed throughout the year from 9% to 11.9%. The president was impeached and there were numerous corruption scandals. Predicting this year could have made you a fortune by shorting (making money when stocks decline) Brazilian stocks in 2016, right? Not so fast. The Brazilian stock market gained +66% in 2016. Not only did it not decline – it was the top performing country for the year.

How is it possible to get stellar returns during the worst economic decline on record? The answer is simple – ignoring prices. The consensus view was for a long and deep economic decline, which would hurt Brazilian companies. In reaction, people sold Brazilian stocks to avoid the declines. The problem was that people kept selling these stocks without regard to prices. Why is this a problem? Say that in normal times a basket of Brazilian stocks is worth $100. Now comes a big recession, and the new realistic value is, say, $80. You would expect rational people to sell until the price reaches $80. But many investors see a struggling economy and sell with disregard to the price. Others cannot imagine a turnaround and sell to reflect a multi-year depression. So, the continued selling brought the basket to a much lower value, say $40. This reflects an unusually bad expectation – far worse than reality. Now comes additional moderately negative news, lowering the realistic value from $80 to $75. With the news being far less negative than expected, people become more positive, and are more likely to accept a value closer to reality. They are ready to correct some of the excess decline, leading to a surge from $40 to, say, $66.40 (a gain of 66%), all while the economy is doing poorly. While the numbers in this example where made up, the mechanism explains what could have led to the surge of Brazilian stocks.

As of 9/30/2016, Brazil represented 6.82% of emerging markets, while the allocation to it in the emerging market portion of QAM’s portfolios was 9.19%. This emphasis reflects the deep value focus (a focus on low priced stocks) of these portfolios, something that often leads to outperformance compared to the general market during recovery years.

Quiz Answer:

Brazil is in the midst of a devastating recession – the worst on record, with GDP of -3.5% for 2016 following -3.8% for 2015. Can you guess the returns of Brazil’s stock market for 2016?

  1. -70%
  2. -62%
  3. -14%
  4. 0%
  5. +24%
  6. +66% [The Correct Answer]
Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

Can You Make Money in a Down Market?

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Quiz!

What are the outcomes of consistently adding to a portfolio during declines of 20% + 20% followed by a 2 year recovery (25% + 25%), instead of using a stable 10%-per-year investment for the new money?

  1. You throw good money after bad – you lose money while feeling lousy.
  2. You lose money, but at least you stay conservative by sticking with your plan. Once there are new peaks, your entire investment will enjoy future growth.
  3. Not only you make money by buying low – you magically outperform the consistent 10% portfolio.
  4. You make money by buying low, and with the new peak your entire investment will enjoy future growth.

Can You Make Money in a Down Market?

Imagine living through a long decline period. If you are retired and your entire life’s savings are invested in your portfolio according to your plan, you can relax knowing that your low withdrawal rate is likely to sustain your money for as long as you live.

If you are still in saving mode, or have money that was not put to work in your portfolio, you have choices. Let’s review two different options:

  1. You wait for the portfolio to recover to gain more comfort, and after it proved itself, you add more money to it. You don’t add money to a losing portfolio.
  2. You add all money available, whether it is savings from work, money invested elsewhere, equity in your home that you can borrow (subject to a risk assessment), or an inheritance.

Let’s continue with an example: Say you had 1M that declined for 2 years, and then recovered in 2 years. Also, say you had 100k to add per year. During the declining period, you choose between diverting to a portfolio that gained 10% per year and adding to the portfolio that simply declined and recovered with no new gains (as described in 1 & 2 above, respectively). Let’s see the financial impact of the 2 options:

1M Portfolio state Value of

original 1M

 Value of new investments
Option #1: Invest at 10% Option #2: Invest in portfolio
20% decline + saved 100k 800k 100k 100k
20% decline + saved 100k 640k 100k + 10% + 100k = 210k 100k – 20% + 100k = 180k
25% gain + saved 100k 800k 210k + 10% + 100k = 331k 180k + 25% + 100k = 325k
25% gain to full recovery 1M 331k + 10% = 364k 325k + 25% + 100k = 506k
Performance of deposits 364k / 300k – 1 = 21% 506k / 300k -1 = 69%

After 4 years, option #1 would result in 364k, while option #2 would result in 506k.

In option #1, your entire mental focus is on the wait for a recovery, to regain comfort with the portfolio. You have no good feelings about the portfolio until you fully regained the lost grounds. In the meantime, you feel good about growing your new savings at 10% per year, and are happy that you did at least one smart thing.

In option #2, you keep adding to the portfolio, ignoring its behavior. At first, you feel good buying low. As the decline continues, you are tempted to feel that you are throwing good money after bad, but you remind yourself that the portfolio is far more attractive the lower it gets, and the new money can enjoy this benefit. After one year of gains, you can already celebrate the impact on your recent deposit. So, instead of focusing on the remaining path to recovery, you can enjoy the hard dollars that you gained during the initial part of the recovery. By the full recovery, you enjoy far better results than 10% per year even though you added to a portfolio that had 0% returns from peak to the new peak.

Quiz Answer:

What are the outcomes of consistently adding to a portfolio during declines of 20% & 20% followed by a 2 year recovery, instead of using a stable 10%-per-year investment for the new money?

  1. You throw good money after bad – you lose money while feeling lousy.
  2. You lose money, but at least you stay conservative by sticking with your plan. Once there are new peaks, your entire investment will enjoy future growth.
  3. Not only you make money by buying low – you magically outperform the consistent 10% portfolio. [The Correct Answer]
  4. You make money by buying low, and with the new peak your entire investment will enjoy future growth.

The article above provides an explanation.

Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

Why you should Hold Bonds in a Taxable Account

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Bonds are typically less tax efficient than stocks, leading to a common recommendation to hold bonds in retirement accounts and stocks in taxable accounts. This article challenges this advice for certain investors.

This article applies if you follow a plan devised by Quality Asset Management, or:

  1. You optimize your use of bonds: Income during stock declines and no other use.
  2. Your stock investments are highly diversified globally, with no market timing and no individual stock selection.
  3. Your stock investments have high average returns and a low turnover (i.e. limited annual sales of stocks; e.g. index mutual funds).

Bonds are less tax efficient than stocks

The notion that bonds are less tax efficient than stocks is the basis for the idea that bonds are a better investment to shelter from taxes, by putting them into retirement accounts. This notion is correct as seen in the table below:

  Bonds (mainly interest) Stocks (mainly capital gains)
Taxation frequency Done every year Mainly deferred to sale. Index funds hold each stock for a number of years on average.
Tax rate Ordinary income tax rate Mainly long-term capital gains

A deeper analysis can challenge the conclusion above.

Considering investment horizon

Given that you use your bonds whenever there are stock declines (assumption #1 at the top), as soon as you experience a stock decline, you would withdraw the money, and would not be able to put it back in. This would result in losing the retirement account tax benefit forever, due to a single stock decline.

There is a sophistication that can help you get around this limitation, but is not very practical due to its complexity and excessive trading.1

Comparing tax amount instead of tax rate

While the tax-rate of bond investments is higher than stocks investments, there is an offsetting factor. The average growth rate of stocks is much higher than bonds, magnifying the total tax amount , and offsetting the benefit of the low tax rate . A full analysis may become complex, given the combination of long-term gains and short-term gains, dividends and capital gains distributions. Instead, I will provide a simplified example to demonstrate the point:

  1. The tax on a bond fund with 5% interest at about 40% tax rate (federal 35% & state 10% minus a deduction of state taxes from federal taxes) is 2%.
  2. The tax on a stock fund with 15% growth taxed at 10% tax rate (federal 15% & state 10% minus 15% for the fact that taxation is mostly deferred) is 1.5%.

The faster growth of the stock investment keeps raising the tax amount. If we start with a $10,000 investment, here is the tax amount over a few years (under the assumptions above):

Tax on $10,000 investment in bonds vs. stocks Difference
Year Bonds (5% growth 2% tax) Stocks (15% growth 1.5% tax)
Principal Tax Principal Tax
1 $10,000 $200 $10,000 $150 -$50
2 $10,300 $206 $11,350 $170 -$36
3 $10,609 $212 $12,882 $193 -$19
4 $10,927 $219 $14,621 $219 $0
5 $11,255 $225 $16,595 $249 $24
6 $11,592 $232 $18,835 $283 $51

The faster growth of the stock investment resulted in a higher tax amount within 5 years, despite the lower tax rate.

While this example ignores some variables, and has simplified assumptions, it demonstrates the point that higher growth can result in higher taxes, even when the tax rate is lower and most of the taxation is deferred.

Summary

The rule of thumb: “hold bonds in retirement accounts, due to their worse tax treatment”, does not hold for investors that optimize their bond and stock investments, for two main reasons: (1) when withdrawing bonds from the retirement account during stock declines you lose the tax benefit forever; (2) the higher growth of stocks results in higher tax amounts over time.

1 Say you need $10k from bonds during a stock decline. You can do the following:

Taxable account: sell $10k stocks

Retirement account: sell $10k bonds, buy $10k stocks

Once your stock portfolio recovers, you can move the stocks in the retirement account back to bonds (sell $10k stocks, buy $10k bonds).

Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data